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For East Texas, head to Lake Charles, LA. All the casinos there have decent games, including good double decks.
If you are in North Texas, shop the casinos in Oklahoma for times and weekdays when they waive the ante. These games often have very good rules, except for the horrible ante. Drop the ante, and they’re quite good.
I’ve worked out the odds of busting (given infinite decks and dealer stands on all 17s) and some of my figures differ to yours. I’m very confident mine are correct, I can send you my excel calculations to scrutinise if you like.
These are my results for dealer busting chances:
10 21.21%
9 22.84%
8 24.47%
7 26.23%
6 42.32%
5 41.64%
4 38.92%
3 36.17%
2 33.42%
A 11.53%
i called up the Mirage casino in Las Vegas five years ago I did not bother to call again on this date September 24 , 2015
asked is card counting legal they said no and i said even if i bet 5000 thousand dollars on seven hands at a table and they still said no
if i am standing on hard 13 , 14 , 15 they know i am studying the cards very well and if i bet much more money when the deck is rich in high cards they will no doubt know what i am deciding to do
if i leave the table when there are a lot of low cards in the deck they know what i am doing what do you think about my comments ?
I don’t know why anyone would call the casino and ask that question. Still, no matter what the Mirage chose to tell you, card counting is of course perfectly legal. And yet the casino is also within their legal rights to tell you that you can’t play if they think you have an advantage. Welcome to the cat and mouse game of card counting.
Counting cards is the easy part. Staying welcome to play is the difficult part. You are certainly not going to be able to just camp out at tables for hours on end varying your bets directly with the count. At low stakes to mid black chip action, you can survive by keeping sessions short and moving around a lot between casinos.
At the very highest stakes, this tactic is less useful. For bets in the thousands, there are better ways to beat them than card counting. At that level, you should be able to demand a percentage rebate if you lose on a trip. If you handle that well, it can be worth much more than counting.
The GameMaster originally used these lessons in a weekly course, so one lesson a week is a reasonable plan. However, since the material varies widely in its breadth lesson by lesson, you can easily just adapt the schedule to your progress.
can I just ask something here, you say that johnny clueless doesnt have an impact in the long run, so how to you explan your matsmatics to the guy who playing his last $2000 on his last hand and johnny takes the dealers bust card? i would love to hear you explain this to me? my emai is [email protected] I await your caculated answer.
I think this has been answered often enough in the comments on this thread. But, being ever the optimist, I’ll make one more foray into it…
People who think that third base can effect their chances are basically espousing this belief: “If the dealer gets the next card off the deck, all is well, but if the dealer gets the second card off the deck instead (after third base takes a card), the dealer is more likely to beat the whole table.” Surely when I state it that way you can see that this is nonsense. If not, well, just believe whatever you like and we’ll leave it at that.
I’d like some help with my reasoning of the cut card effect on a shoe game. I am used to playing a shoe game using eight decks, with the cut card placed about three decks from the end, so only five of the eight decks are dealt.
It seems to me that with this setup, the cut card helps the players. If the front of the shoe is rich in high cards, more hands are dealt. If it is rich in low cards, fewer hands are dealt. Therefore, the players get to play more hands when the shoe is favorable, and fewer hands when it is unfavorable. Thus, with only five-deck penetration in an eight deck shoe, it looks like the cut card benefits the basic strategy player.
Here’s a great page on the cut card effect and the impact it has: https://www.blackjackincolor.com/blackjackeffects1.htm
I see why your version sounds plausible, but it’s not quite what happens. Think of it this way instead… If the front of the shoe is rich in high cards, you are more likely to have to play an extra hand or two after all those good cards are already gone.
Note that the effect is not dependent on any particular penetration. It exists any time the game uses a fixed shuffle point.
Thanks for creating this great website and I like the discussion here as well.
my local casinos use machine shuffle for all $5 min tables(shuffle ever one deck), hand shuffle for $10 min tables.
I have to sit at $10 table if I am going to counting,but if I only have $1,000 bankroll, do your have some strategy for the people who don’t have enough bankroll to play? or should I wait until I get $10,000 bankroll?
I answered a similar question recently here: https://www.blackjackinfo.com/blackjack-school/lesson-08-money-management-part-2/#comment-23543
The idea of taking a shot with a too-small bankroll is often referred to as a “Hail Mary” bankroll. If you are willing to accept the risk of losing it all and then having to raise another bank, it’s a viable plan. Just don’t get yourself into a situation where you don’t have enough bankroll left to split and double appropriately.
Mr. Ryan
I love to hear from Ken about your question. But I will give you my two cents worth of opinion. It’s just back luck!! Johnny can took away the good card from dealer and make you win that hand too. Then you will be $2000 ahead. Then you should quit going to casino forever, so that you will be ahead $2000 , because that will be your last hand playing blackjack. Good luck!
Hi Ken,
I dont get it 12 vs. 5 stand at – 1 or higher what i understand too many cards in the decks so i need to hit again is that the correct move? And what why is it -1 count is higher than -3 or above?thanks
Just to describe it more fully… With 12v5, if the true count is worse than -1, you should hit. That means at negative true counts such as -2 or -3, you should hit. The negative count is telling you that there are excess small cards left, decreasing the chance that you will bust by hitting, and also decreasing the chance that the dealer will bust. At a true count of -1 or better (-1, 0, +1, etc), you should stand. Note that this corresponds with basic strategy, which says to stand with 12v5.
You also asked “Why is it -1 count is higher than -3 or above?” If I understand the question correctly, just think back to the number line in school where you probably first saw negative numbers… -5, -4, -3, -2, -1, 0, +1, +2, +3, +4, +5. So yes, -1 is higher than -3.
I recently had some feedback from “LV Bear” suggesting that using the terms “better” or “worse”, would be less confusing for some readers than “higher” or “lower”. I agree. If I revamp the GameMaster’s lessons, I will likely make that switch.
I have another question, I just find out that in your lesson 20 you play $10 min with a $3,000 bankroll. does $3,000 bankroll can be enough for all the loss in one session if I can count and play properly with 1-6 spread ? do I have to take $3,000 cash in my pocket when I am going to play?(silly question for sure but like to know) Thanks,
Where should you go for a good blackjack game if your from texas
For East Texas, head to Lake Charles, LA. All the casinos there have decent games, including good double decks.
If you are in North Texas, shop the casinos in Oklahoma for times and weekdays when they waive the ante. These games often have very good rules, except for the horrible ante. Drop the ante, and they’re quite good.
Hi,
I’ve worked out the odds of busting (given infinite decks and dealer stands on all 17s) and some of my figures differ to yours. I’m very confident mine are correct, I can send you my excel calculations to scrutinise if you like.
These are my results for dealer busting chances:
10 21.21%
9 22.84%
8 24.47%
7 26.23%
6 42.32%
5 41.64%
4 38.92%
3 36.17%
2 33.42%
A 11.53%
No, something is wrong with your calculations. Your numbers agree with mine for dealer upcards of 5,6,7,8, and 9, but are too low on all the other upcards.
If you want a second place to compare, see this thread and download the spreadsheet there:
https://www.blackjackinfo.com/knowledge-base/blackjack-theory-and-math/distribution-of-dealer-hands/
i called up the Mirage casino in Las Vegas five years ago I did not bother to call again on this date September 24 , 2015
asked is card counting legal they said no and i said even if i bet 5000 thousand dollars on seven hands at a table and they still said no
if i am standing on hard 13 , 14 , 15 they know i am studying the cards very well and if i bet much more money when the deck is rich in high cards they will no doubt know what i am deciding to do
if i leave the table when there are a lot of low cards in the deck they know what i am doing what do you think about my comments ?
I don’t know why anyone would call the casino and ask that question. Still, no matter what the Mirage chose to tell you, card counting is of course perfectly legal. And yet the casino is also within their legal rights to tell you that you can’t play if they think you have an advantage. Welcome to the cat and mouse game of card counting.
Counting cards is the easy part. Staying welcome to play is the difficult part. You are certainly not going to be able to just camp out at tables for hours on end varying your bets directly with the count. At low stakes to mid black chip action, you can survive by keeping sessions short and moving around a lot between casinos.
At the very highest stakes, this tactic is less useful. For bets in the thousands, there are better ways to beat them than card counting. At that level, you should be able to demand a percentage rebate if you lose on a trip. If you handle that well, it can be worth much more than counting.
How frequently should we move on to the next lesson?
The GameMaster originally used these lessons in a weekly course, so one lesson a week is a reasonable plan. However, since the material varies widely in its breadth lesson by lesson, you can easily just adapt the schedule to your progress.
can I just ask something here, you say that johnny clueless doesnt have an impact in the long run, so how to you explan your matsmatics to the guy who playing his last $2000 on his last hand and johnny takes the dealers bust card? i would love to hear you explain this to me? my emai is [email protected] I await your caculated answer.
I think this has been answered often enough in the comments on this thread. But, being ever the optimist, I’ll make one more foray into it…
People who think that third base can effect their chances are basically espousing this belief: “If the dealer gets the next card off the deck, all is well, but if the dealer gets the second card off the deck instead (after third base takes a card), the dealer is more likely to beat the whole table.” Surely when I state it that way you can see that this is nonsense. If not, well, just believe whatever you like and we’ll leave it at that.
I’d like some help with my reasoning of the cut card effect on a shoe game. I am used to playing a shoe game using eight decks, with the cut card placed about three decks from the end, so only five of the eight decks are dealt.
It seems to me that with this setup, the cut card helps the players. If the front of the shoe is rich in high cards, more hands are dealt. If it is rich in low cards, fewer hands are dealt. Therefore, the players get to play more hands when the shoe is favorable, and fewer hands when it is unfavorable. Thus, with only five-deck penetration in an eight deck shoe, it looks like the cut card benefits the basic strategy player.
Am I missing something?
Here’s a great page on the cut card effect and the impact it has:
https://www.blackjackincolor.com/blackjackeffects1.htm
I see why your version sounds plausible, but it’s not quite what happens. Think of it this way instead… If the front of the shoe is rich in high cards, you are more likely to have to play an extra hand or two after all those good cards are already gone.
Note that the effect is not dependent on any particular penetration. It exists any time the game uses a fixed shuffle point.
Hi Ken,
Thanks for creating this great website and I like the discussion here as well.
my local casinos use machine shuffle for all $5 min tables(shuffle ever one deck), hand shuffle for $10 min tables.
I have to sit at $10 table if I am going to counting,but if I only have $1,000 bankroll, do your have some strategy for the people who don’t have enough bankroll to play? or should I wait until I get $10,000 bankroll?
I answered a similar question recently here:
https://www.blackjackinfo.com/blackjack-school/lesson-08-money-management-part-2/#comment-23543
The idea of taking a shot with a too-small bankroll is often referred to as a “Hail Mary” bankroll. If you are willing to accept the risk of losing it all and then having to raise another bank, it’s a viable plan. Just don’t get yourself into a situation where you don’t have enough bankroll left to split and double appropriately.
Mr. Ryan
I love to hear from Ken about your question. But I will give you my two cents worth of opinion. It’s just back luck!! Johnny can took away the good card from dealer and make you win that hand too. Then you will be $2000 ahead. Then you should quit going to casino forever, so that you will be ahead $2000 , because that will be your last hand playing blackjack. Good luck!
Hi Ken,
I dont get it 12 vs. 5 stand at – 1 or higher what i understand too many cards in the decks so i need to hit again is that the correct move? And what why is it -1 count is higher than -3 or above?thanks
Just to describe it more fully… With 12v5, if the true count is worse than -1, you should hit. That means at negative true counts such as -2 or -3, you should hit. The negative count is telling you that there are excess small cards left, decreasing the chance that you will bust by hitting, and also decreasing the chance that the dealer will bust. At a true count of -1 or better (-1, 0, +1, etc), you should stand. Note that this corresponds with basic strategy, which says to stand with 12v5.
You also asked “Why is it -1 count is higher than -3 or above?” If I understand the question correctly, just think back to the number line in school where you probably first saw negative numbers… -5, -4, -3, -2, -1, 0, +1, +2, +3, +4, +5. So yes, -1 is higher than -3.
I recently had some feedback from “LV Bear” suggesting that using the terms “better” or “worse”, would be less confusing for some readers than “higher” or “lower”. I agree. If I revamp the GameMaster’s lessons, I will likely make that switch.
Thank you very much for your prompt replying.
I have another question, I just find out that in your lesson 20 you play $10 min with a $3,000 bankroll. does $3,000 bankroll can be enough for all the loss in one session if I can count and play properly with 1-6 spread ? do I have to take $3,000 cash in my pocket when I am going to play?(silly question for sure but like to know) Thanks,
totally agree. i had a guy hit on 19! yes 19! after me. i had $200 on that hand he had $20. this hand has put me off blackjack for life!
anyone have an idea of the morocco’s blackjack rules ?