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• Pokerkid52 said:
(Posted to: Lesson 14 - The Advanced Course - Part 2)

Thanks for all the amazing resources.

How would the above basic strategy variations table change if the game involved the dealer hitting on soft 17 instead of standing. This is the more common format that I see in casinos so it is what I have been basing my basic strategy around. Would the true count cutoffs be significantly different with this slight dealer rule change?

How would you know how to vary your basic strategy based on the true count for other variations in rules?

Thanks again for all the help

• There are no differences at all for dealer upcards of 7,8,9,T, since the dealer cannot have a soft 17 with those hands.
But against dealer 2 through 6 and Ace, there are several.

Perhaps the largest difference is this one… 12v6 should stand at -1 or higher in 6DS17, but stand at -4 or higher in 6DH17 games.
(The GameMaster doesn’t show this index in his list, but it’s a useful one.)

For more indexes optimized for different by rules, see my Advanced Strategy cards.

• Anonymous said:
(Posted to: How a Basic Strategy Player can Beat Blackjack)

Michael. I’m sorry for your loss. If Frank Sinatra was still alive he’d take a f*ing flamethrower to that table, dealer and pit boss that f*ed up your bankroll.

• Jerald Vaughan said:
(Posted to: Blackjack Double Down Probabilities)

your chart shows doubling a,2 vs 4 as win 49.4% and lose as46.0% but basic strategy chart does not show it as a double. what am I missing?

• You can’t compare doubling vs hitting unless you also know the hit/lose/push probabilities for both. In the case of A2v4, those numbers are better when hitting than doubling. (There is likely a big reduction in loss percentage, and a big increase in pushes.) The double down charts simply do not include enough information to derive basic strategy from them, because they’re only part of the puzzle.

• Luis said:
(Posted to: Blackjack Double Down Probabilities)

Who supervises the casino ? Example: 6 or 8 decks with 75% penetration .
The casino could take 10 faces , illegally , without the counter notice ?

• Kel said:
(Posted to: Lesson 2 - Learning Basic Strategy)

In Austria the pay 3:2 also on 777 which means always hit on 7,7 for the basic strategy, right?

But they use a CSM with 6 decks and a stack of max 2,5 decks. Is this game beatable?

• David said:
(Posted to: Online Blackjack Strategy Trainer)

Thanks for the BJ game. It’s a real good one. The black letters on the green are a little hard for me to see. Only problem I’ve noticed.

• Edward said:

I was wondering how much it’s actually realistic to make assuming you make no major mistakes and you keep track of the count. Saying that the casino has a 1 % advantage they’ll win 51 hands and we’ll win 49. We say that we only have 2 bet sizes, 5 and 10, min and max. We say that we’ve been counting and betting higher when the count is high and lower when it’s low and we’ve come out with 51 L: 41 min + 10 max = -305. 49 W: 24 min + 25 max = 370 so on average for 100 hands we’ll have earnt 370-305 = 65. Saying we take the standard approach of initial money 40x max bet our initial capital is 400. 65/400 = aprox. 16% increase per 100 hands so if you take a conservative approach of 100 hands per hour you’ll have doubled your money in 6 hours. 16*6=96.

I just wanted your input on wether these numbers are reasonable and realistic or if not then what your thoughts are on eventual profits and how much you yourself would expect to make on an average night

• Ken Smith replied:

Your estimates have a lot of problems. Even your first calculation of 51 vs 49 yields the wrong answer… That would be a 2% house edge, not 1%. But honestly, you can’t even come close to understanding blackjack with a simple wins/losses idea. It’s too complex for that kind of simplification.

My advice? Ditch all the manual calculations. If you want concrete numbers, either run the sims yourself using something like the CVData software, or buy a book like Blackjack Attack where all this work has been done for you.

The bottom line is far less lucrative than your estimates. Assuming decent conditions, a card counter’s advantage is usually around 1% of his total action. In 100 hands, your profit is probably a couple of your minimum bets. And you’ll need to spread far more than \$5 to \$10 to make any profit at all. (The house edge can’t be overcome with such a small spread.)

• Andrew said:
(Posted to: Online Blackjack Strategy Trainer)

Something I noticed is that the dealer will still hit even if their first two cards have a greater total than mine and its under 17. No sane dealer in real life would hit when they already have a total greater than yours, right?

• So do I have to keep changing back and forth from real count to true count between making my decisions and counting or did I miss the part where one of courses touched on that point?

• Yes, you maintain the running count, and then need to convert it to a true count for making betting and playing decisions. Fortunately, it is usually obvious what the play is, and you’re not constantly having to do the conversion. Instead, you’ll have a pretty good idea what the true count is already, and precision is only needed occasionally.

• I was playing in Poland few month. So I can say the basic strategy, card counting, and other beting system really works my mounth profit was ~ 3000euro, ante was 3euro

• Ken Smith said:

Yes, you can profitably play without strategy variations. Bet variation yields the majority of the profit, with strategy variations just being the extra on top.

• Anonymous said:

If you play the game with no variation, only change your bets can you still achieve an advantage or is variation play integral for this to occur?

• Ken Smith said:

Most decisions at the table are made pretty quickly, but you won’t be bothered about it unless you take more than 20 or 30 seconds to decide.
As for how to keep track? Practice, practice.

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