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I calculated my local casino edge based on the infor you give.
our rule is 6 decks, double on any first two cards, double after splitting, resplit all pairs, except Aces, insurance is available,dealer stands on H-17.
so my calculation is: -.54% -0.2%(H17)+0.7(ES)+0.14(DAS)=0.1% is this right? if it is right, does it mean player have 0.1% edge over casino?
thanks for all you have replied on other topic.
You are very unlikely to have a local game that offers EARLY surrender. It is probably LATE surrender.
Check your understanding here: Blackjack Surrender Explained
Dealer only has one card on table, player can surrender before the first third card deal out of the shoe.player can surrender on dealer’s ten but not A. so what is the advantage for player for this rule. if ES is +0.7%, what is the advantage for this kind of surrender?
How come when you split Aces and then get another Ace the program will not let you split beyond two hands that is a flaw that needs to be corrected asap. Thanks!
Yes, there is a problem with split Aces in the current version. A completely new trainer is in development and coming along nicely. I’m hoping to launch before the end of the year.
Although the individual lesson pages are somewhat optimized for printing, the pages will print with the comments included.
There is no summarized version available.
I win every time I go to a casino, and I do it without counting cards. I would play more, but I feel like I would get banned if I kept winning at my current pace (at the one place that I play now).
I doubled my seed money in 5 hours playing a consistent 1/20 seed money bet.
It sounds like you are using a progression, perhaps a Martingale where you double up until you win a hand, which produces a profit for the series equal to your initial bet. You don’t have to worry about being banned for that. In fact, quite the opposite. Unfortunately, you also don’t have to worry about continuing to win for the long term. You will eventually hit a long enough streak of losses to wipe you out, and your net result will be negative. You cannot create a winning expectation by making any sequence of negative expectation bets. It just doesn’t work that way.
Nope, not progressive. I bet the same every time. The tables that I play have a max bet just 8x greater than my typical bet. So counting splits, doubles, etc., I would be broke in no time if I were doing progressive.
I could’ve been just really lucky in the past, but how many times or how much money can I win before they start to notice?
I wouldn’t worry. If you are flat-betting with nothing else going on, you’ve just been lucky. As a flat-bettor, you can win a lot before they get worried. In bigger places, $50K cumulative win might be a problem. But if they don’t see anything suspicious in your play, think six figures. In small places that really sweat the money, it can be tough to win $10K without issues, even for players that appear to just be lucky. For this question, your mileage may vary.
I always have a tough time answering that question, because experienced players approach the game so differently. I always play games where I have a positive expected value, so the longer I play the more I make. But I also don’t want to wear out my welcome, so I tend to keep my sessions short, at around an hour before moving on. Winning or losing don’t factor into my decision much at all, except when the size of a win or loss starts to look unusual.
For casual players, wins and losses often do have a big impact on how long you play, and that is not necessarily a bad thing. It can feel devastating to have a nice win early in a session and yet give it all back and end up a big loser. If you aren’t pretty experienced at the game and can take those kinds of results in stride with just a shrug of the shoulders, you will likely benefit from having a win limit. Likewise, a loss limit can prevent a terrible crushing loss. If you are counting and playing a positive game, any kind of limit that makes you leave early will cost you playing time, and therefore some profit potential. But it is likely worth it for most player’s mental game.
Skipping out on the worst negative counts in a shoe game really boosts your results, so it is worth trying to make that happen.
If you play six decks and cannot table-hop, at least time your breaks for when the count gets really terrible.
If you can play 2-deck games instead, you can afford to sit through everything.
Hi Ken,
I calculated my local casino edge based on the infor you give.
our rule is 6 decks, double on any first two cards, double after splitting, resplit all pairs, except Aces, insurance is available,dealer stands on H-17.
so my calculation is: -.54% -0.2%(H17)+0.7(ES)+0.14(DAS)=0.1% is this right? if it is right, does it mean player have 0.1% edge over casino?
thanks for all you have replied on other topic.
You are very unlikely to have a local game that offers EARLY surrender. It is probably LATE surrender.
Check your understanding here: Blackjack Surrender Explained
Dealer only has one card on table, player can surrender before the first third card deal out of the shoe.player can surrender on dealer’s ten but not A. so what is the advantage for player for this rule. if ES is +0.7%, what is the advantage for this kind of surrender?
Early surrender against the dealer ten is worth around 0.24%, instead of the 0.70% value of full early surrender.
Thank you very much Ken, love your website.
Is blackjack dying, it’s hard to find a good game, h17, Csm and now way too many 6:5 games are casinos going to make blackjack a dinasor ?
I actually addressed exactly this in a recent blog post:
The State of Blackjack: Opportunity Amidst the Apocalypse?
How come when you split Aces and then get another Ace the program will not let you split beyond two hands that is a flaw that needs to be corrected asap. Thanks!
Yes, there is a problem with split Aces in the current version. A completely new trainer is in development and coming along nicely. I’m hoping to launch before the end of the year.
Any chance you have a variations chart for 6 deck but the dealer must hit soft 17?
The only place I have the H17 indexes at the moment is on the Advanced Strategy Cards.
hey, is this whole course available in a printer frendly version? please reply to [email protected]
Although the individual lesson pages are somewhat optimized for printing, the pages will print with the comments included.
There is no summarized version available.
However, the GameMaster also published this material along with much more in his book, available at Amazon:
The (Darn Near) Complete Guide to Winning Blackjack.
Hey all,
I win every time I go to a casino, and I do it without counting cards. I would play more, but I feel like I would get banned if I kept winning at my current pace (at the one place that I play now).
I doubled my seed money in 5 hours playing a consistent 1/20 seed money bet.
It sounds like you are using a progression, perhaps a Martingale where you double up until you win a hand, which produces a profit for the series equal to your initial bet. You don’t have to worry about being banned for that. In fact, quite the opposite. Unfortunately, you also don’t have to worry about continuing to win for the long term. You will eventually hit a long enough streak of losses to wipe you out, and your net result will be negative. You cannot create a winning expectation by making any sequence of negative expectation bets. It just doesn’t work that way.
Nope, not progressive. I bet the same every time. The tables that I play have a max bet just 8x greater than my typical bet. So counting splits, doubles, etc., I would be broke in no time if I were doing progressive.
I could’ve been just really lucky in the past, but how many times or how much money can I win before they start to notice?
Thanks.
I wouldn’t worry. If you are flat-betting with nothing else going on, you’ve just been lucky. As a flat-bettor, you can win a lot before they get worried. In bigger places, $50K cumulative win might be a problem. But if they don’t see anything suspicious in your play, think six figures. In small places that really sweat the money, it can be tough to win $10K without issues, even for players that appear to just be lucky. For this question, your mileage may vary.
Very interesting. Thanks for the words of wisdom, Ken.
I always have a tough time answering that question, because experienced players approach the game so differently. I always play games where I have a positive expected value, so the longer I play the more I make. But I also don’t want to wear out my welcome, so I tend to keep my sessions short, at around an hour before moving on. Winning or losing don’t factor into my decision much at all, except when the size of a win or loss starts to look unusual.
For casual players, wins and losses often do have a big impact on how long you play, and that is not necessarily a bad thing. It can feel devastating to have a nice win early in a session and yet give it all back and end up a big loser. If you aren’t pretty experienced at the game and can take those kinds of results in stride with just a shrug of the shoulders, you will likely benefit from having a win limit. Likewise, a loss limit can prevent a terrible crushing loss. If you are counting and playing a positive game, any kind of limit that makes you leave early will cost you playing time, and therefore some profit potential. But it is likely worth it for most player’s mental game.
Skipping out on the worst negative counts in a shoe game really boosts your results, so it is worth trying to make that happen.
If you play six decks and cannot table-hop, at least time your breaks for when the count gets really terrible.
If you can play 2-deck games instead, you can afford to sit through everything.