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January 2016. If you have cards with the error and would like them replaced, email me at [email protected]
There are likely still some of the old printing in the distribution channel.
Would there be a harm in using the betting table you mentioned above – regarding 0.5% increase in advantage/true count with the Omega II count? If so, what number should I use instead of 0.5%?
Hey i am pretty good at card counting,
Only thing is when i am actually playing and trying to count i lose the count.
I thought i would learn to speed count just while i am playing Black jack.
I needed to know if you think this method would work?
( I usually get in games with about 6 players myself included)
Thanks
Your comment is a little confusing. I assume you are asking what I think of the “speed count”, a simpler method of counting cards. I’m not a fan of the speed count, because although it does work, it is much weaker than a count like KO. Most players find that with some practice they can use KO. Your results will be much better if you can do that.
Hey thanks for getting right back to me.
Sorry about the confusion on the question.
You did answer my question.i have a hard time keeping the count while i am playing in the casino.
I got basic strategy down real well.
On my bank roll i stay pretty much even.
No big loses or wins.
I just need more practice on the count under pressure
Thanks for the input.
Your products really r helping me improve my game.
Thank you for the info. I see you calculated stand on 17. I only have the option of hit on soft 17. I can assume the risk of ruin and 100/h win rate will be even worse than the calculations above, correct?
And I claim I looked at your message before deciding! Oops, my mistake!
Here is a run for H17:
$10 to $120 spread:
75% pen, Win per 100 hands: $16, RoR: 32%
83% pen, Win per 100 hands: $22, RoR: 21%
$15 to $180 spread:
75% pen, Win per 100 hands: $24, RoR: 47%
83% pen, Win per 100 hands: $33, RoR: 36%
AND, I realize now that I posted NDAS numbers before.
I corrected the numbers in the S17 reply. They are now DAS as intended.
I have a question regarding the logic of these variations (and actually, card counting in general now that I think about it).
Say you have a hard 15 against the dealer’s 7. You say to stand if the count is above 10. The reasoning behind this is that with a high count, there is a much higher percentage that the next card is a high card and that you will bust. However, under this same logic, there is ALSO a very high percentage that the dealer’s hole card is a face card, since the hole card is unknown and is subject to the same probability as the rest of the deck. Meaning that there is a high chance that your 15 will lose to the dealer’s 7.
I know you said in a different comment not to focus on the “why”, but I’ve realized that the dealer’s hole card should be seriously considered with the count in mind. Do these indexes account for the hole card? Are there computer simulations or other data that demonstrate the validity of these indexes?
Also, quick unrelated follow-up question: Did you ever re-calculate the table in Lesson 9 about Standard Deviation? It was calculated using a flat $12 bet, not a spread. If you haven’t gotten to this yet, could you point me in the direction of some software or something that I could use to run simulations/calculations myself? I could save you some time and send you the results, if so.
Hi Ken. I’ve been playing basic strategy for years and am starting to learn to count properly. I’m going on a trip to Connecticut and playing at MS. The BSE says to surrender 16 against a 10, I get that, but it says to stay if no surrender. I’ve never stayed on 16 against a 10, is that really mathematically correct?
Thanks,
Glen
I’m also not sure if they H17 or S17, but if it’s H17 it says to surrender, or stay with 17 against an Ace. Ok, so I’ve never stood on 16 against 10 and I’ve never surrendered a 17. Can you help me understand these 2 plays?
Thanks again,
Glen
I understand that you don’t know which card the clueless guy is going to draw. But people don’t usually get upset when someone does a crazy movie like hitting a 16 vs a dealer 6 until they see the outcome. I’ve seen players keep their mouth shut and say yay you saved the table and you killed the table. Me personally if someone does something like that, I just look to see if that mistake effected me that hand. Even if it does I don’t say anything but it just sucks to know you would have won a hand if someone played basic strat. This is all hindsight I’m not talking about before the outcome.
I ran CVCX from Qfit.com to get some numbers.
CVCX is worth the money for these sorts of calculations, even though it takes a while to get the hang of it.
6 decks, S17, DAS, $8000 bank:
$10 to $120 spread:
75% (4.5/6) penetration: Win per 100 hands: $22, RoR: 24%
83% (5.0/6) penetration: Win per 100 hands: $26, RoR: 15%
$15 to $180 spread:
75% (4.5/6) penetration: Win per 100 hands: $32, RoR: 38%
83% (5.0/6) penetration: Win per 100 hands: $40, RoR: 28%
With a $12K bank, 75% penetration $10-$120 RoR drops to 11%.
With a $12K bank, 75% penetration $15-$180 RoR is still 24%.
The killer in 6+ deck games is the cost of waiting through the crud. If you can backcount, it makes a huge difference.
That’s tough most places these days due to mid-shoe entry restrictions and increased heat.
But at least make sure you take breaks on really negative counts. That will help a lot.
If it’s really a non-replenishable bankroll, I think it’s too risky. My rule of thumb is to not make an initial bet of more than 1% of your bankroll. That would imply a $12K bank for $10-$120, and a $18K bank for $15-$180. I also realize that when starting out, that can be an unmanageable sum to accrue. Most players in that situation will take a shot with the smaller bank. If it falls apart, it’s back to work to build another bank.
I don’t trust my off-the-cuff RoR estimates because I’m out of practice. Let me see if I can do a quick job tonight to get a real estimate for you.
when were the newest versions of the card corrected and printed?
January 2016. If you have cards with the error and would like them replaced, email me at [email protected]
There are likely still some of the old printing in the distribution channel.
Would there be a harm in using the betting table you mentioned above – regarding 0.5% increase in advantage/true count with the Omega II count? If so, what number should I use instead of 0.5%?
Site search is your friend for questions like this.
See https://www.blackjackinfo.com/knowledge-base/blackjack-card-counting/aoii-advantage-at-each-true-count/
Hey i am pretty good at card counting,
Only thing is when i am actually playing and trying to count i lose the count.
I thought i would learn to speed count just while i am playing Black jack.
I needed to know if you think this method would work?
( I usually get in games with about 6 players myself included)
Thanks
Your comment is a little confusing. I assume you are asking what I think of the “speed count”, a simpler method of counting cards. I’m not a fan of the speed count, because although it does work, it is much weaker than a count like KO. Most players find that with some practice they can use KO. Your results will be much better if you can do that.
( continued)
I Always have to count in a six deck shoe.
Thanks.
Hey thanks for getting right back to me.
Sorry about the confusion on the question.
You did answer my question.i have a hard time keeping the count while i am playing in the casino.
I got basic strategy down real well.
On my bank roll i stay pretty much even.
No big loses or wins.
I just need more practice on the count under pressure
Thanks for the input.
Your products really r helping me improve my game.
Staying at Wynn there are still tables in both casinos with 3:2 and sh17 but you have to hunt them out they are typically higher min bet tables.
Thank you for the info. I see you calculated stand on 17. I only have the option of hit on soft 17. I can assume the risk of ruin and 100/h win rate will be even worse than the calculations above, correct?
And I claim I looked at your message before deciding! Oops, my mistake!
Here is a run for H17:
$10 to $120 spread:
75% pen, Win per 100 hands: $16, RoR: 32%
83% pen, Win per 100 hands: $22, RoR: 21%
$15 to $180 spread:
75% pen, Win per 100 hands: $24, RoR: 47%
83% pen, Win per 100 hands: $33, RoR: 36%
AND, I realize now that I posted NDAS numbers before.
I corrected the numbers in the S17 reply. They are now DAS as intended.
I have a question regarding the logic of these variations (and actually, card counting in general now that I think about it).
Say you have a hard 15 against the dealer’s 7. You say to stand if the count is above 10. The reasoning behind this is that with a high count, there is a much higher percentage that the next card is a high card and that you will bust. However, under this same logic, there is ALSO a very high percentage that the dealer’s hole card is a face card, since the hole card is unknown and is subject to the same probability as the rest of the deck. Meaning that there is a high chance that your 15 will lose to the dealer’s 7.
I know you said in a different comment not to focus on the “why”, but I’ve realized that the dealer’s hole card should be seriously considered with the count in mind. Do these indexes account for the hole card? Are there computer simulations or other data that demonstrate the validity of these indexes?
Also, quick unrelated follow-up question: Did you ever re-calculate the table in Lesson 9 about Standard Deviation? It was calculated using a flat $12 bet, not a spread. If you haven’t gotten to this yet, could you point me in the direction of some software or something that I could use to run simulations/calculations myself? I could save you some time and send you the results, if so.
Hi Ken. I’ve been playing basic strategy for years and am starting to learn to count properly. I’m going on a trip to Connecticut and playing at MS. The BSE says to surrender 16 against a 10, I get that, but it says to stay if no surrender. I’ve never stayed on 16 against a 10, is that really mathematically correct?
Thanks,
Glen
I’m also not sure if they H17 or S17, but if it’s H17 it says to surrender, or stay with 17 against an Ace. Ok, so I’ve never stood on 16 against 10 and I’ve never surrendered a 17. Can you help me understand these 2 plays?
Thanks again,
Glen
I understand that you don’t know which card the clueless guy is going to draw. But people don’t usually get upset when someone does a crazy movie like hitting a 16 vs a dealer 6 until they see the outcome. I’ve seen players keep their mouth shut and say yay you saved the table and you killed the table. Me personally if someone does something like that, I just look to see if that mistake effected me that hand. Even if it does I don’t say anything but it just sucks to know you would have won a hand if someone played basic strat. This is all hindsight I’m not talking about before the outcome.
I ran CVCX from Qfit.com to get some numbers.
CVCX is worth the money for these sorts of calculations, even though it takes a while to get the hang of it.
6 decks, S17, DAS, $8000 bank:
$10 to $120 spread:
75% (4.5/6) penetration: Win per 100 hands: $22, RoR: 24%
83% (5.0/6) penetration: Win per 100 hands: $26, RoR: 15%
$15 to $180 spread:
75% (4.5/6) penetration: Win per 100 hands: $32, RoR: 38%
83% (5.0/6) penetration: Win per 100 hands: $40, RoR: 28%
With a $12K bank, 75% penetration $10-$120 RoR drops to 11%.
With a $12K bank, 75% penetration $15-$180 RoR is still 24%.
The killer in 6+ deck games is the cost of waiting through the crud. If you can backcount, it makes a huge difference.
That’s tough most places these days due to mid-shoe entry restrictions and increased heat.
But at least make sure you take breaks on really negative counts. That will help a lot.
If it’s really a non-replenishable bankroll, I think it’s too risky. My rule of thumb is to not make an initial bet of more than 1% of your bankroll. That would imply a $12K bank for $10-$120, and a $18K bank for $15-$180. I also realize that when starting out, that can be an unmanageable sum to accrue. Most players in that situation will take a shot with the smaller bank. If it falls apart, it’s back to work to build another bank.
I don’t trust my off-the-cuff RoR estimates because I’m out of practice. Let me see if I can do a quick job tonight to get a real estimate for you.
Thanks for the reply Ken, In your opinion is $8K bankroll sufficient for $15 tables?
Hi Chad,
I just don’t have time at the moment to run any sims for you. Check at blackjacktheforum.com.(Scratch that. Running sims now.)I re-read my post and wanted to clear up I am inquiring about “risk of ruin” with the RoR acronym.
Thanks,